SimpleFunctions

2+ goals for Luis Diaz

Luis Diaz: 2+ goals: Luis Diaz: 2+ is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 8 inside KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD.

Price history

8¢ current

5¢10¢
Jun 22, 2026Jun 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Luis Diaz records at least 2 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Colombia vs Congo DR professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Luis Diaz: 2+ goals: Luis Diaz: 2+

Rank

#5 of 8

Leader

Luis Diaz: 1+ goals: Luis Diaz: 1+ 31¢

Range

2¢-31¢

Family volume

$11K

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLLDIAZ14-2

Jun 22, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Implied probability

8¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 22, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$354

Family rank

#5 of 8

8 outcomes · KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD

Closes

Jul 8, 2026

Family volume

$11K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 8¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
8¢169
9¢501
16¢500
24¢6.0K
25¢25K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Luis Diaz records at least 2 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Colombia vs Congo DR professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 8, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLLDIAZ14-2

SF Signal
SF Index
13824.85
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

27649.7%

IY (No)

209.1%

Adj IY

13825%

CRI

12

Overround

0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

27649.7%
209.1%
Adj IY
13825%
12
Overround
0.0%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.