Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
8 contracts
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+ goals: Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+” vs “Luis Diaz: 1+ goals: Luis Diaz: 1+”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+ goals: Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+
Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+ goals: Aaron Wan-Bissaka: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-CODAWANB29-1
Cluster 2
Luis Diaz: 1+ goals: Luis Diaz: 1+
Luis Diaz: 1+ goals: Luis Diaz: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLLDIAZ14-1
Cluster 3
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals: Yoane Wissa: 1+
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals: Yoane Wissa: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-CODYWISSA9-1
Cluster 4
Luka Modric: 1+ goals: Luka Modric: 1+
Luka Modric: 1+ goals: Luka Modric: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23PANCRO-CROLMODRI14-1
Cluster 5
Luis Suarez: 1+ goals: Luis Suarez: 1+
Luis Suarez: 1+ goals: Luis Suarez: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLLSUARE97-1
Cluster 6
Ivan Perisic: 1+ goals: Ivan Perisic: 1+
Ivan Perisic: 1+ goals: Ivan Perisic: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23PANCRO-CROIPERIS5-1
Cluster 7
James Rodriguez: 1+ goals: James Rodriguez: 1+
James Rodriguez: 1+ goals: James Rodriguez: 1+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLJRODRI10-1
Cluster 8
Luis Diaz: 2+ goals: Luis Diaz: 2+
Luis Diaz: 2+ goals: Luis Diaz: 2+
KXWCGOAL-26JUN23COLCOD-COLLDIAZ14-2
Analysis
This contract reflects a 13% probability that Duckens Nazon scores at least one goal in an upcoming match. The low probability typically indicates either that Nazon is not expected to start, plays limited minutes, or faces defensive opponents, or that other attacking players on his team are favored to score instead. The contract resolves when the match concludes and official goal statistics are recorded. Key drivers of the probability would include Nazon's recent playing time, his position in the team's attacking rotation, the strength of the opposing defense, and overall team performance in recent fixtures.
- ›Nazon's average minutes played per match in recent appearances compared to other attacking options on the roster
- ›The defensive strength or recent goal concession rate of the opposing team
- ›Nazon's goal-scoring rate per 90 minutes over the last 5-10 competitive fixtures
- ›His current status in the team's starting lineup versus bench position
- ›The relative pricing of similar one-goal contracts for teammates (context: Vinicius Jr at 28%, Raphinha at 26%, Xhaka at 19%)
What moved the line
- Jun 221+ goals: Luka Modric: 1+↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 221+ goals: Ivan Perisic: 1+↑8pp7→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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