Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31 is priced at 26¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 17¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$46K
Identifier
0xddeb8874...1fec
Jun 25, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
18¢
Reported volume
$46K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$46K
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xddeb8874…1fec
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$46K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31 26¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.