Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0% is priced at 45¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 88¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
45¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Outcome
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$54
Identifier
0xb5e81ed4...c94a
Jun 24, 2026, 1:39 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
88¢
Reported volume
$54
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$54
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
0xb5e81ed4…c94a
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$54
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0% 45¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.