Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Leader sits at 49% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
-0.5-0.0%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
1.0-1.5%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.0-0.5%
0x2bc6ae…849f
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+
0xf57d1b…d629
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: <-0.5%
0xf2c691…925d
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.0-1.5%
0xd73bff…7e17
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.5-2.0%
0xd0b445…368b
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: -0.5-0.0%
0xb5e81e…c94a
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.0-2.5%
0x99285c…e6ad
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.5-1.0%
0x53cc7f…9fce
Analysis
Markets are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth at roughly even odds of hitting 2.5% or higher, with the current frontrunner being minimal growth in the 0.0–0.5% range. This reflects significant uncertainty about Mexico's economic momentum heading into mid-year. The baseline forecast depends heavily on whether recent manufacturing and remittance flows sustain momentum, or whether tightening financial conditions and nearshoring volatility slow activity. Inflation pressures and central bank policy responses also shape expectations. The resolution hinges on Mexico's official Q2 GDP release, typically published in early August, which will provide the definitive annualized growth figure. Until then, incoming employment, industrial production, and credit data through June and July will offer signals about the underlying trajectory.
- ›Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate and recent quarterly trend will anchor expectations for Q2 momentum
- ›U.S. economic growth and manufacturing demand directly influence Mexican export-driven sectors and FDI flows
- ›Banco de México's interest rate decisions and inflation data through Q2 affect domestic consumption and investment spending
- ›Remittance inflows, which represent a material portion of household income, depend on U.S. labor market conditions
- ›Official Q2 GDP release (expected early August 2026) will definitively resolve the outcome; prior monthly PMI and industrial production data will provide interim signals
What moved the line
- Jun 181.5-2.0%↑6pp35→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 182.0-2.5%↑4pp41→45¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 161.5-2.0%↓4pp38→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 172.0-2.5%↓3pp44→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18-0.5-0.0%↑3pp45→48¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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