Miami wins by over 4.5 points
Miami wins by over 4.5 points is priced at 39¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
39¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Miami wins by more than 4.5 points in the Miami vs Washington Pro Football game originally scheduled for Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Miami wins by over 4.5 points
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNFLSPREAD-26AUG14MIAWAS-MIA5
Aug 9, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 2h ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Miami wins by more than 4.5 points in the Miami vs Washington Pro Football game originally scheduled for Aug 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Identifier
KXNFLSPREAD-26AUG14MIAWAS-MIA5
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Miami wins by over 4.5 points 39¢
Current share
—
Miami wins by over 4.5 points
kalshi · KXNFLSPREAD-26AUG14MIAWAS-MIA5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 39% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.