First Goalscorer for No Goal
No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG.
Price history
8¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If no player records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi 18¢
Range
6¢-18¢
Family volume
$27K
Identifier
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-NOGOAL
Jul 13, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$16K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$27K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If no player records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-NOGOAL
Event family
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$27K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi 18¢
Current share
60%
Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10
Harry Kane: First Goalscorer: Harry Kane
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGHKANE9
Jude Bellingham: First Goalscorer: Jude Bellingham
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGJBELLI5
No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-NOGOAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.