Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026 is priced at 30¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 27¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
30¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$126K
Identifier
0x890f9b8d...aad1
Jun 25, 2026, 1:17 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$458
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$126K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x890f9b8d…aad1
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$126K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026 30¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.