Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
June 30, 2026
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$87
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by
Analysis
This market indicates a modest 18% probability that Pedro Sánchez will cease being Spain's Prime Minister by an unspecified future date. The relatively low probability reflects Sánchez's current political position, though Spain's fragmented parliament and his dependence on coalition partners create ongoing governance uncertainty. Factors pushing the probability higher include potential political instability, coalition breakdowns, or electoral defeats. Factors supporting the lower level are Sánchez's demonstrated ability to maintain his position despite numerous challenges since 2018, and the absence of imminent near-term political events that would force his resignation. The primary driver of movement would be significant changes to Spanish coalition dynamics or unexpected political crises that destabilize his government. Without a specific deadline in this contract, resolution depends on longer-term political developments rather than a single scheduled event.
- ›Sánchez's coalition government relies on external support from regional and minority parties whose backing could shift unpredictably
- ›Spain's fragmented parliament has historically made single-party governance difficult, increasing reliance on negotiated coalitions
- ›Spanish political dynamics have shown capacity for sudden government instability, as evidenced by previous confidence votes and coalition tensions
- ›The market prices this lower than some other international leaders despite similar structural vulnerabilities, suggesting relative confidence in Sánchez's political survival
- ›No specific date is anchored to this contract, making it dependent on unscheduled political events rather than electoral calendars
What moved the line
- Apr 28June 30, 2026↑18pp4→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30June 30, 2026↓18pp22→4¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31, 2026↓3pp21→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.