SimpleFunctions

Rot-Weiss Essen To Advance for Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli

Rot-Weiss Essen To Advance: Rot-Weiss Essen advances is priced at 42¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 76¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli.

Price history

42¢ current

+39¢
0¢25¢
Aug 9, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Rot-Weiss Essen advance past St. Pauli in the Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli soccer tie in the Round 1 of the DFB Pokal, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Rot-Weiss Essen To Advance: Rot-Weiss Essen advances

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

St. Pauli To Advance: St. Pauli advances 32¢

Range

4¢-32¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG23RWESTP-RWE

Aug 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

42¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

Ask

80¢

Spread

76¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 80¢

Kalshi
76¢ spread
BidSize
100¢560
4¢10
3¢10
2¢275
AskSize
80¢10
81¢100
84¢100
90¢100
91¢10

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Rot-Weiss Essen advance past St. Pauli in the Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli soccer tie in the Round 1 of the DFB Pokal, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Identifier

KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG23RWESTP-RWE

SF Signal
SF Index
10566.44
Regime
neutral

Event family

Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

2

Highest price

St. Pauli To Advance: St. Pauli advances 32¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

21132.9%
36.7%
Adj IY
10566%
24

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.