Rostock vs Stuttgart
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+26pp
46h ago
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Top contract
84¢
$639 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Rhynern vs Dresden” vs “Krieschow vs Mainz”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Rhynern vs Dresden
Cluster 2
Krieschow vs Mainz
Cluster 3
Schott Mainz vs M´gladbach
Cluster 4
Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn: P
Cluster 5
Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli
Cluster 6
Dusseldorf vs Freiburg
Cluster 7
Jena vs Darmstadt
Cluster 8
Hemelingen vs Hannover: Hannover To Advance: Hannover advances
Hemelingen vs Hannover: Hannover To Advance: Hannover advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG22HEMH96-H96
Cluster 9
Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim: Heidenheim To Advance: Heidenheim advances
Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim: Heidenheim To Advance: Heidenheim advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG23JEDFCH-FCH
Cluster 10
Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg: Magdeburg To Advance: Magdeburg advances
Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg: Magdeburg To Advance: Magdeburg advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG23BAHFCM-FCM
Cluster 11
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt: Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances
St. Tonis vs Frankfurt: Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG21STTSGE-SGE
Cluster 12
1860 Munich vs Kiel: 1860 Munich To Advance: 1860 Munich advances
1860 Munich vs Kiel: 1860 Munich To Advance: 1860 Munich advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG22M60HOK-M60
Cluster 13
Braunschweig vs Union Berlin: Braunschweig To Advance: Braunschweig advances
Braunschweig vs Union Berlin: Braunschweig To Advance: Braunschweig advances
KXDFBPOKALADVANCE-26AUG23EBSUNI-EBS
Analysis
This 4% probability reflects market expectations that Rostock will defeat Stuttgart in an upcoming match. The low odds suggest Stuttgart is heavily favored, likely due to relative league position, recent form, or squad quality differences. Key drivers of this probability include Stuttgart's historical performance advantage and current standings, while factors that could shift the market would be significant roster changes, recent injuries to Stuttgart's key players, or Rostock demonstrating unexpected form improvement. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played, which serves as the resolution event for this contract.
- ›Stuttgart's league position and historical head-to-head record against Rostock
- ›Current season performance metrics and recent match results for both squads
- ›Injury status of key players, particularly for Stuttgart
- ›Rostock's home-field advantage if applicable
- ›Market pricing across multiple contracts suggesting consensus on Stuttgart as the stronger side
What moved the line
- Aug 9Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances↑41pp33→74¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances↑30pp3→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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