Ryan Garcia · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN
Ryan Garcia is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 15 inside KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN.
Price history
12¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Ryan Garcia competes in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ryan Garcia
Rank
#9 of 15
Leader
Amanda Serrano 55¢
Range
6¢-55¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-RGAR
Sep 21, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$8
Family rank
#9 of 15
15 outcomes · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN
Closes
Jan 8, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ryan Garcia competes in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2028
Identifier
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-RGAR
Event family
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Amanda Serrano 55¢
Current share
—
Amanda Serrano
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-ASER
Jake Paul
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-JPAU
Floyd Mayweather Jr.
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-FMAY
Conor McGregor
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-CMCG
Ilia Topuria
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-ITOP
Tyson Fury
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-TFUR
Sean O'Malley
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-SOMA
Gervonta Davis
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-GDAV
Ryan Garcia
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-RGAR
Michael Chandler
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-MCHA
Kamaru Usman
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-KUSM
Charles Oliveira
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-COLI
Anthony Joshua
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-AJOS
Canelo Alvarez
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-CALV
Oleksandr Usyk
kalshi · KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-OUSY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.