Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$34
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2028
474 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Michael Chandler to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 202
Cluster 2
Jake Paul to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 202
Cluster 3
Amanda Serrano to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 202
Cluster 4
Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 202
Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Floyd Mayweather Jr.
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-FMAY
Floyd Mayweather Jr. to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2027?: Floyd Mayweather Jr.
KXMMACOMPETE-27JAN-FMAY
Cluster 5
Conor McGregor to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Conor McGregor to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Conor McGregor
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-CMCG
Cluster 6
Kamaru Usman to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Kamaru Usman to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Kamaru Usman
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-KUSM
Cluster 7
Charles Oliveira to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Cluster 8
Ryan Garcia to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Ryan Garcia to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Ryan Garcia
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-RGAR
Cluster 9
Anthony Joshua to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Cluster 10
Canelo Alvarez to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Cluster 11
Gervonta Davis to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Cluster 12
Ilia Topuria to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Ilia Topuria to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Ilia Topuria
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-ITOP
Cluster 13
Oleksandr Usyk to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Cluster 14
Sean O'Malley to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Sean O'Malley to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Sean O'Malley
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-SOMA
Cluster 15
Tyson Fury to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028
Tyson Fury to compete in the MVP (Most Valuable Promotions) MMA before 2028?: Tyson Fury
KXMMACOMPETE-28JAN-TFUR
Analysis
This market estimates a 19% chance that boxer Gervonta Davis will compete in MVP MMA, a promotion founded by Jake Paul, before the end of 2026. The relatively low probability reflects Davis's established boxing career and lack of public statements about MMA competition, alongside the short timeframe remaining. Resolution hinges on whether Davis announces or fights in an MVP event before December 31, 2026. Key considerations include Davis's current boxing schedule commitments, the financial incentives MVP might offer to attract established combat athletes, and whether Davis has expressed any interest in cross-training or competing in MMA. The Jake Paul MVP boxing contract markets trade significantly higher (5¢ for 2027, 75¢ for 2028), suggesting markets view MMA participation as distinctly less likely than boxing involvement. Davis would need to make a public commitment and actually compete within approximately five months for this to resolve affirmatively.
- ›Davis has no publicly known MMA experience or training; any competition would require substantial preparation or announcement
- ›MVP MMA events have occurred with limited mainstream fighter participation; the promotion's ability to attract established boxers to MMA remains unproven
- ›Related markets show Jake Paul at 5¢ for MVP boxing and various fighters trading between 6¢-17¢, indicating markets price MMA crossover as substantially less likely than boxing
- ›The December 31, 2026 deadline provides approximately five months for announcement, training, and actual competition to occur
- ›Davis maintains active boxing commitments that would complicate simultaneous MMA preparation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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