SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — 82 contracts, SF signal on every row.

82 live Kalshi contracts (132 audited). Median implied probability sits at 32%. 13 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.4 -79c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXGDPNOM
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXGDPNOM
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXGDPNOM",
    "label": "Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 82,
    "volume24hSum": 23,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$23
min $0max $114
Breadth-100%-59.7pp
min -100%max 93%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:00 UTC
May 18past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 22:23

Live contracts

82

Median IY

32¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$23

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-79¢

KXGDPNOM-FRA26-3.4

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 1 of 82 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 316.6 → 316.6%

$101d7d30d90d365d316.6316.6316.6

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 82

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

India Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.2 trillion27¢
IY 317%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 553%Resid —$23
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.7 trillion3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.8 trillion3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.9 trillion3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.0 trillion63¢
IY 69%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion32¢
IY 249%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion16¢
IY 615%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.7 trillion6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion94¢
IY 7.5%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion94¢
IY 7.5%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion91¢
IY 12%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion88¢
IY 16%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.5 trillion73¢
IY 43%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.6 trillion56¢
IY 92%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.7 trillion29¢
IY 287%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.8 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.9 trillion12¢
IY 859%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.2 trillion6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion74¢
IY 41%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion75¢
IY 39%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
82 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

From market_changes
20h agoKalshi
France Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.4 trillion
4¢83→4 (-79)
open →
11h agoKalshi
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.8 trillion
3¢75→3 (-72)
open →
11h agoKalshi
UK Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.9 trillion
6¢71→6 (-65)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.6 trillion
60¢92→60 (-32)
open →
19h agoKalshi
India Nominal GDP in 2026?: above $4.8 trillion
7¢1→7 (+6)
open →
19h agoKalshi
India Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.2 trillion
25¢31→25 (-6)
open →
19h agoKalshi
India Nominal GDP in 2026?: above $5.0 trillion
7¢1→7 (+6)
open →
4h agoKalshi
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.6 trillion
28¢33→28 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 22:38:25 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →