SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — 117 contracts, SF signal on every row.

117 live Kalshi contracts (132 audited). Median implied probability sits at 60%. 3 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXGDPNOM-MEX26-2.1 +32c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXGDPNOM
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXGDPNOM
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXGDPNOM",
    "label": "Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 117,
    "volume24hSum": 681.39,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 16:00 UTC
Vol Flow$681+36%
min $0max $681
Breadth100%+171.4pp
min -71%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 16:00 UTC
Jul 16past 7d · UTCJul 23 · 14:23

Live contracts

117

Median IY

60¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$681

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+32¢

KXGDPNOM-MEX26-2.1

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 117 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 163.3 → 544.9%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d544.9354.1163.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 117

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.3 trillion47¢
IY 163%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$680
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.5 trillion21¢
IY 545%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.4 trillion41¢
IY 208%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.6 trillion31¢
IY 322%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.8 trillion23¢
IY 485%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $33.0 trillion13¢
IY 969%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion24¢
IY 459%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.7 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion94¢
IY 9.2%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion94¢
IY 9.2%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion90¢
IY 16%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion86¢
IY 24%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.5 trillion72¢
IY 56%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.6 trillion56¢
IY 114%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.7 trillion29¢
IY 355%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.8 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.9 trillion9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.2 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion92¢
IY 13%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
117 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

From market_changes
8h agoKalshi
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion
52¢20→52 (+32)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.5 trillion
21¢27→21 (-6)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.3 trillion
47¢52→47 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Jul 2026 15:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →