SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — 111 contracts, SF signal on every row.

111 live Kalshi contracts (132 audited). Median implied probability sits at 64%. 52 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXGDPNOM-AUS26-1.7 +84c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXGDPNOM
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXGDPNOM
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXGDPNOM",
    "label": "Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 111,
    "volume24hSum": 101,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 19 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 00:00 UTC
Vol Flow$101
min $0max $804
Breadth-23%+76.9pp
min -100%max 52%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 00:00 UTC
Sep 13past 7d · UTCSep 19 · 22:23

Live contracts

111

Median IY

64¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$101

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+84¢

KXGDPNOM-AUS26-1.7

Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 111 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 294.8 → 631.0%

$10$1001d7d30d90d631.0462.9294.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 111

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.6 trillion39¢
IY 295%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
India Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.2 trillion23¢
IY 631%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.8 trillion4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.9 trillion4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.0 trillion60¢
IY 126%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion54¢
IY 161%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion21¢
IY 709%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion96¢
IY 7.9%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion94¢
IY 12%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion88¢
IY 26%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion84¢
IY 36%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.5 trillion69¢
IY 85%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.6 trillion53¢
IY 167%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.7 trillion27¢
IY 510%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.8 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.2 trillion5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion93¢
IY 14%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.2 trillion90¢
IY 21%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion88¢
IY 26%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion64¢
IY 106%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
111 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Nominal GDP Forecast Markets

From market_changes
10h agoKalshi
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.7 trillion
89¢5→89 (+84)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.3 trillion
88¢8→88 (+80)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.8 trillion
88¢11→88 (+77)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.4 trillion
84¢9→84 (+75)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.9 trillion
85¢11→85 (+74)
open →
10h agoKalshi
France Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.5 trillion
4¢64→4 (-60)
open →
10h agoKalshi
France Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $3.4 trillion
23¢80→23 (-57)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.7 trillion
32¢89→32 (-57)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 19 Sep 2026 23:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXGDPNOM →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →