US Nominal GDP in 2026

The prediction market displays a distinctly non-monotonic structure across all country cohorts, defying traditional yield curve shapes. Within each country's GDP nominal growth forecasts, probabilities initially decline steeply across strike prices, then flatten or invert at higher thresholds. For Australia, probabilities fall from 91% at 1.6% growth to just 1% at 2.5-2.6%, creating a sharp cliff. Brazil shows similar compression, dropping from 94% at 2.1-2.2% to 5% at 2.8%. Canada mirrors this pattern, collapsing from 92% at 2.1% to 3% at 2.8%. France exhibits the most gradual decline, descending from 96% at 3.2% to 2% at 3.9%, then recovering slightly to 6-10% at higher strikes. China's curve is notably erratic, with probabilities jumping between 1%, 60%, 90%, and 79% across adjacent strikes, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine disagreement about growth outcomes. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the extreme tails—1% across multiple high-strike markets—indicating minimal conviction in very high growth scenarios. The market's probability distribution suggests concentrated expectations around moderate growth outcomes for each economy, with sharp rejection of both very low and very high growth scenarios. The steep downslope from lower to middle strikes indicates the market assigns highest confidence to baseline growth forecasts, while the flattening and inversion at upper strikes reveals skepticism about acceleration beyond consensus ranges. This structure implies the market views 2026 nominal GDP growth as unlikely to deviate substantially from historical norms, with tail risks priced as remote events. The China cohort's volatility an