Australia Nominal GDP in 2026

The prediction market displays a striking cross-country divergence rather than a traditional yield curve shape, since all 157 constituent markets share an identical 193-day tenor. Within individual country buckets, however, the probability distributions reveal distinct patterns. Australia shows a bimodal distribution with peaks at 1.6% (60%) and 2.0% (60%), suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome range. Brazil presents a steep downward-sloping distribution from 2.1% (96%) through 2.7% (27%), with tail probabilities collapsing to 1-5% at extremes. Canada mirrors this pattern with 2.1% at 93% probability declining to 2.7% (5%). China displays the most gradual slope, starting at 19.2% (95%) and declining smoothly to 22.2% (3%), indicating a wide but concentrated probability mass. France shows extreme fragmentation with probabilities jumping erratically (93%, 2%, 23%, 2%, 43%, 39%, 18%, 3%, 2%), suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine disagreement among traders. The market's unified 193-day tenor eliminates traditional yield curve analysis, but the within-country distributions reveal how traders view outcome likelihood rather than timing. The steep probability cliffs in Brazil and Canada—where probabilities halve between adjacent buckets—suggest markets view these outcomes as binary: either the event occurs within a narrow range or it doesn't. China's gentler slope indicates broader acceptance of a wider outcome distribution. Australia's bimodal structure implies two competing scenarios rather than a consensus forecast. The absence of any meaningful probability mass beyond 193 days suggests the market expects resolution certainty by that date, with no meaningful tail risk extending further out. Overall