SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate4 markets

Will T1 win the Team Liquid vs. T1 League of Legends match

event base · KXLOLGAME

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 21 May 2026Methodology
24h volume
$37.5K
Constituents
4
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
94.0%
T1

Outcome probabilities

4 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve exhibits a modest flattening structure across the 15-18 day tenor spectrum. The 15-day bucket (tau=15d) contains the cheapest YES probabilities, with several markets pricing outcomes between 10-27%, notably KXLOLGAME-26MAY211700TOSGTZ-GTZ at 10.0% and KXLOLGAME-26MAY220100T1ABRO-BRO at 12.0%. The 16-17 day buckets show marginal compression, with probabilities clustering in similar ranges, while the 18-day tenor (KXLOLGAME-26MAY241600TLLY) maintains comparable pricing at 40-56%. Across all tenors, complementary market pairs sum to approximately 100%, indicating efficient pricing within individual matchups. The curve lacks pronounced steepness, suggesting minimal term premium between the nearest and furthest expiries. The flattened structure implies the market views the underlying event as relatively imminent and concentrated within the immediate 15-18 day window, with little differentiation in conviction across tenors. The presence of consistently low probabilities in the 10-27% range across all buckets suggests the market assigns substantial uncertainty to specific outcomes rather than expecting resolution timing to materially shift probabilities. The absence of a steep upward or downward slope indicates traders are not pricing in a significant acceleration or deceleration of event probability as time progresses. Instead, the market appears to be pricing a relatively stable, near-term resolution environment where the distribution of outcomes remains relatively constant regardless of whether resolution occurs at 15 or 18 days.

Generated 5/21/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

4 kalshi contracts

Browse this series

League of Legends Match Winner Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXLOLGAME on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:24:38 GMT.