SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — 2,706 contracts, SF signal on every row.

2,706 live Kalshi contracts (2,456 audited). Median implied probability sits at 47%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN",
    "label": "2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 2706,
    "volume24hSum": 9.36,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 10 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 05:15 UTC
Vol Flow$9-98%
min $9max $7.6K
Breadth100%+133.3pp
min -40%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:15 UTC
Aug 3past 7d · UTCAug 10 · 02:23

Live contracts

2,706

Median IY

47¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$9

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 2,706 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 61.1 → 157.3%

1d7d30d90d365d157.3109.261.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

Showing top 20 of 2,706

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4700000?: Above 4.70M34¢
IY 157%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 410000?: Above 410K57¢
IY 61%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K56¢
IY 64%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 02 House General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K28¢
IY 208%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K50¢
IY 81%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 01 House General Election be above 220000?: Above 220K17¢
IY 396%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K11¢
IY 656%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K41¢
IY 117%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K26¢
IY 231%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 01 House General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K21¢
IY 305%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K14¢
IY 498%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K13¢
IY 542%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 01 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K26¢
IY 231%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 01 House General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K12¢
IY 594%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K68¢
IY 38%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K32¢
IY 172%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K41¢
IY 117%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 02 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K12¢
IY 594%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K68¢
IY 38%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
2,706 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 Aug 2026 04:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →