SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — 2,473 contracts, SF signal on every row.

2,473 live Kalshi contracts (2,456 audited). Median implied probability sits at 48%. 1 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-PA12-390000 -7c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN",
    "label": "2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 2473,
    "volume24hSum": 128.63,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-202.0
Vol Flow$129-97%
min $12max $6.2K
Breadth-100%-100.0pp
min -100%max 40%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 17:00 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 16:23

Live contracts

2,473

Median IY

48¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$129

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-7¢

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-PA12-390000

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — liquidity topography (top 4 of 2,473 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 79.7 → 313.8%

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d313.8196.779.7

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

Showing top 20 of 2,473

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 860000?: Above 860K24¢
IY 233%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 820000?: Above 820K29¢
IY 180%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$37
Will the total vote count for all participants in New York 10 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K19¢
IY 314%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$37
Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Governor General Election be above 2500000?: Above 2.5M48¢
IY 80%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 01 House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K20¢
IY 294%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming at large House General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K18¢
IY 335%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K32¢
IY 156%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 01 House General Election be above 250000?: Above 250K41¢
IY 106%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming at large House General Election be above 220000?: Above 220K29¢
IY 180%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming at large House General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K40¢
IY 110%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 02 House General Election be above 250000?: Above 250K61¢
IY 47%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 01 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K34¢
IY 143%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 02 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K18¢
IY 335%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 01 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K13¢
IY 493%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 2900000?: Above 2.9M25¢
IY 221%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia Senate General Election be above 900000?: Above 900K5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 01 House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K27¢
IY 199%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in West Virginia 02 House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K29¢
IY 180%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
2,473 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

From market_changes
23h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Pennsylvania 12 House General Election be above 390000?: Above 390K
2¢9→2 (-7)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 16:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →