SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — 543 contracts, SF signal on every row.

543 live Kalshi contracts (2,456 audited). Median implied probability sits at 36%. 1505 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TX29-152000 -96c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN",
    "label": "2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 543,
    "volume24hSum": 2279.94,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$2.3K+81%
min $530max $13.0K
Breadth-19%+10.4pp
min -100%max 49%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 10:45 UTC
Sep 18past 7d · UTCSep 25 · 10:23

Live contracts

543

Median IY

36¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$2.3K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-96¢

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TX29-152000

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — liquidity topography (top 41 of 543 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 21.2 → 2919.9%

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d2919.91470.521.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

Showing top 20 of 543

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the total vote count for all participants in Colorado Senate General Election be above 3000000?: Above 3.00M13¢
IY 604%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$297
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4400000?: Above 4.40M61¢
IY 58%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$253
Will the total vote count for all participants in Louisiana Senate General Election be above 1290000?: Above 1.29M13¢
IY 604%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$203
Will the total vote count for all participants in Kansas Senate General Election be above 1060000?: Above 1.06M6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$200
Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Senate General Election be above 2600000?: Above 2.60M18¢
IY 411%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$160
Will the total vote count for all participants in North Carolina Senate General Election be above 3900000?: Above 3.90M6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$154
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 470000?: Above 470K8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$112
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10600000?: Above 10.60M14¢
IY 555%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$100
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K11¢
IY 731%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon Senate General Election be above 2000000?: Above 2.00M9¢
IY 913%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$56
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?: Above 12M62¢
IY 55%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$51
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 430000?: Above 430K3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?: Above 10.9M78¢
IY 25%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Governor General Election be above 2500000?: Above 2.5M65¢
IY 49%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$30
Will the total vote count for all participants in Washington 03 House General Election be above 330000?: Above 330K11¢
IY 731%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$29
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 13100000?: Above 13.1M19¢
IY 385%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$28
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 2600000?: Above 2.6M7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$27
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Jersey Senate General Election be above 3800000?: Above 3.80M6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$25
Will the total vote count for all participants in Vermont Governor General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K81¢
IY 21%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$24
543 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

From market_changes
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas 29 House General Election be above 152000?: Above 152K
97¢1→97 (+96)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas 29 House General Election be above 152000?: Above 152K
1¢97→1 (-96)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Governor General Election be above 620000?: Above 620K
2¢83→2 (-81)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Governor General Election be above 650000?: Above 650K
2¢78→2 (-76)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas 36 House General Election be above 202000?: Above 202K
2¢78→2 (-76)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Washington 03 House General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K
2¢77→2 (-75)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Pennsylvania 13 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K
2¢77→2 (-75)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in South Carolina 05 House General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K
2¢76→2 (-74)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Sep 2026 10:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →