SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — 1,932 contracts, SF signal on every row.

1,932 live Kalshi contracts (2,456 audited). Median implied probability sits at 47%. 3833 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NYGOV-5800000 +87c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMIDTERMVOTETURN",
    "label": "2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 1932,
    "volume24hSum": 1687.12,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$1.7K+1%
min $9max $7.6K
Breadth-4%-38.0pp
min -67%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:45 UTC
Aug 6past 7d · UTCAug 12 · 22:23

Live contracts

1,932

Median IY

47¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$1.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+87¢

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NYGOV-5800000

2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets — liquidity topography (top 18 of 1,932 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2.5 → 1956.7%

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d1956.7979.62.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

Showing top 20 of 1,932

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 01 House General Election be above 400000?: Above 400K4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$481
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 01 House General Election be above 420000?: Above 420K6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$400
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 700000?: Above 700K30¢
IY 190%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$271
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 12 House General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K24¢
IY 258%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$200
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4700000?: Above 4.70M26¢
IY 232%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$194
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5600000?: Above 5.60M17¢
IY 398%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$52
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 04 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K42¢
IY 113%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$36
Will the total vote count for all participants in Connecticut Governor General Election be above 1260000?: Above 1.26M51¢
IY 78%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$17
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K9¢
IY 824%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10600000?: Above 10.60M12¢
IY 598%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$7
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K18¢
IY 371%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$5
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K30¢
IY 190%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$5
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000?: Above 11.5M71¢
IY 33%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 120%Resid —$4
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 470000?: Above 470K8¢
IY 938%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Senate General Election be above 2600000?: Above 2.60M24¢
IY 258%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12600000?: Above 12.6M47¢
IY 92%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 157%Resid —$1
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas 29 House General Election be above 152000?: Above 152K97¢
IY 2.5%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin 07 House General Election be above 390000?: Above 390K23¢
IY 273%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K23¢
IY 273%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K23¢
IY 273%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
1,932 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets

From market_changes
16h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Illinois 15 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
2¢89→2 (-87)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Governor General Election be above 620000?: Above 620K
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Illinois 15 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Governor General Election be above 620000?: Above 620K
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Governor General Election be above 620000?: Above 620K
2¢89→2 (-87)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in New York Governor General Election be above 5800000?: Above 5.8M
2¢89→2 (-87)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in New York Governor General Election be above 5800000?: Above 5.8M
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will the total vote count for all participants in Illinois 15 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
89¢2→89 (+87)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Aug 2026 22:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMIDTERMVOTETURN →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →