SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — 44 contracts, SF signal on every row.

44 live Kalshi contracts (54 audited). Median implied probability sits at 11%. 4 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26RSHAHEED-SEA -17c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 21.9pp · cheapest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-27JALLEN-DET · richest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-IND.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNEXTTEAMNFL",
    "label": "NFL Star Next-Team Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 44,
    "volume24hSum": 21235.16,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.0005
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 04:00 UTC
Vol Flow$21.2K-51%
min $13.2Kmax $43.0K
Breadth-100%-100.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 04:00 UTC
Sep 13past 7d · UTCSep 20 · 02:23

Live contracts

44

Median IY

11¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$21.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-17¢

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26RSHAHEED-SEA

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — liquidity topography (top 7 of 44 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 82.5 → 12157.2%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d12157.26119.882.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

Showing top 20 of 44

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh86¢
IY 82%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$10.2K
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Retires / No Team11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$8.5K
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Chicago4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.4K
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City45¢
IY 437%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$814
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: New York G3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$194
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$89
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires69¢
IY 228%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$35
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Atlanta5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Baltimore17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Carolina5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Chicago3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Cincinnati3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Detroit4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles R12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles C5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Miami9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: San Francisco3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
44 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

From market_changes
14h agoKalshi
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Stays with Seattle or Retires
78¢95→78 (-17)
open →
14h agoKalshi
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires
30¢44→30 (-14)
open →
14h agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires
17¢11→17 (+6)
open →
8h agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires
11¢17→11 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Sep 2026 03:38:40 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →