SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — 55 contracts, SF signal on every row.

55 live Kalshi contracts (54 audited). Median implied probability sits at 11%. 8 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-WAS -20c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 22.5pp · cheapest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-27JALLEN-DET · richest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26JBURROW-CIN.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNEXTTEAMNFL",
    "label": "NFL Star Next-Team Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 55,
    "volume24hSum": 6801.91,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00044
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 27 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$6.8K+180%
min $1.1Kmax $7.8K
Breadth-100%0.0pp
min -100%max 33%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:45 UTC
Jul 20past 7d · UTCJul 27 · 12:23

Live contracts

55

Median IY

11¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$6.8K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-20¢

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-WAS

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — liquidity topography (top 15 of 55 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 15.2 → 9314.5%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d9314.54664.815.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

Showing top 20 of 55

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires61¢
IY 184%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 233%Resid —$2.8K
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Las Vegas3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.4K
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Buffalo3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$469
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh95¢
IY 15%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$450
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Los Angeles R8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$302
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Stays with New England or Retires4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$250
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles R or Retires from Pro Football93¢
IY 77%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$242
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington27¢
IY 779%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$238
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$191
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Atlanta3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$156
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$152
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Dallas4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$117
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires41¢
IY 335%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 856%Resid —$65
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$9
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Pittsburgh78¢
IY 81%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Pittsburgh16¢
IY 478%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Las Vegas9¢
IY 921%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Los Angeles C8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Detroit8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Dallas14¢
IY 560%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
55 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

From market_changes
45m agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington
27¢47→27 (-20)
open →
19h agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore
8¢23→8 (-15)
open →
13h agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires
28¢43→28 (-15)
open →
3h agoKalshi
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
62¢69→62 (-7)
open →
23h agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore
23¢16→23 (+7)
open →
15m agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires
36¢41→36 (-5)
open →
18h agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore
13¢8→13 (+5)
open →
4h agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires
35¢30→35 (+5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 27 Jul 2026 12:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →