SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — 52 contracts, SF signal on every row.

52 live Kalshi contracts (54 audited). Median implied probability sits at 12%. 5 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-ATL -27c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 23.3pp · cheapest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-27JALLEN-DET · richest KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26JBURROW-CIN.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNEXTTEAMNFL",
    "label": "NFL Star Next-Team Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 52,
    "volume24hSum": 3715.95,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00043
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 22 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$3.7K-49%
min $684max $7.8K
Breadth-100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:45 UTC
Jul 15past 7d · UTCJul 22 · 04:23

Live contracts

52

Median IY

12¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-27¢

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-ATL

NFL Star Next-Team Markets — liquidity topography (top 14 of 52 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 24.0 → 8941.1%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d8941.14482.624.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

Showing top 20 of 52

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Retires / No Team3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$710
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$573
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Stays with Atlanta or Retires91¢
IY 27%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$510
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires70¢
IY 119%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 270%Resid —$405
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Los Angeles R7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$300
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington34¢
IY 537%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$300
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Kansas City9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$278
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$239
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Pittsburgh78¢
IY 78%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$121
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh92¢
IY 24%Cliff 12Edge —RVol 112%Resid —$110
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Atlanta3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$77
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Stays with Cincinnati or Retires from Pro Football97¢
IY 28%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$62
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires39¢
IY 433%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$18
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles R or Retires from Pro Football95¢
IY 47%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$13
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New England5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: San Francisco10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Chicago4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Dallas4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
52 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NFL Star Next-Team Markets

From market_changes
45m agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Atlanta
3¢30→3 (-27)
open →
6h agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington
27¢45→27 (-18)
open →
7h agoKalshi
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City
15¢24→15 (-9)
open →
7h agoKalshi
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: San Francisco
1¢8→1 (-7)
open →
15h agoKalshi
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington
48¢53→48 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 22 Jul 2026 05:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNEXTTEAMNFL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →