SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve306 markets

What will be Davante Adams's next team

event base · KXNEXTTEAMNFL

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 22 May 2026Methodology
24h volume
$19.9K
Constituents
306
Distinct tenors
5
3mo – 15mo
Avg P(YES)
5.7%

Term structure

YES probability across 5 tenors

25%50%75%3mo6mo9mo12mo15mo
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across the two observable tenor buckets, with the 102-day contracts trading at substantially higher probabilities than the 116-day contracts. At the 102-day tenor, Joe Burrow to Cincinnati commands 90.0% YES probability with $212 in 24-hour volume, while Geno Adams to Los Angeles trades at 62.0%. By contrast, the 116-day bucket shows dramatically compressed probabilities, with Brent Sour to Arizona at only 10.0% and most other outcomes priced at 1-5%. This steepening reflects a sharp cliff in market conviction between these two time horizons, with the cheapest YES probability appearing in the 116-day bucket across nearly all outcomes. The curve's structure reveals the market's expectation that the triggering event will occur imminently, concentrated within the 102-day window. The steep drop-off to 116-day contracts suggests traders believe resolution is highly likely to occur before day 116, making longer-dated outcomes substantially less probable. The market is pricing in a near-term catalyst or decision point, with Joe Burrow remaining in Cincinnati as the dominant outcome at 90% probability. The extreme compression of probabilities in the 116-day bucket—where even the highest-probability outcome reaches only 10%—indicates the market views this event as essentially binary and imminent rather than distributed across time, with little residual probability mass assigned to outcomes beyond the near-term horizon.

Generated 5/22/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

306 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Stays with Indianapolis or Retires6mo99.0%$0
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh6mo99.0%$13
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Stays with Seattle or Retires6mo96.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Stays with Cincinnati or Retires from Pro Football3mo92.0%$25
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Stays with Buffalo or Retires15mo88.0%$0
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: New England6mo83.0%$3.9K
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Stays with Atlanta or Retires6mo70.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Denver6mo69.0%$0
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Pittsburgh3mo64.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Cincinnati6mo64.0%$0
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles R or Retires from Pro Football3mo62.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires6mo59.0%$684
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Arizona6mo48.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires6mo47.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: New England6mo44.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City7mo38.0%$1.2K
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Philadelphia3mo18.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Baltimore6mo17.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Chicago6mo17.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Cincinnati6mo17.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Green Bay6mo17.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle6mo17.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Pittsburgh15mo16.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore6mo14.0%$19
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington6mo14.0%$78
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires7mo13.0%$346
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Dallas15mo13.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Stays with New England or Retires6mo12.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Cleveland6mo11.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Buffalo6mo11.0%$136
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Tennessee6mo11.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Cleveland4mo10.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans6mo9.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Miami6mo8.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Detroit15mo8.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Los Angeles C15mo8.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Pittsburgh4mo7.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Kansas City6mo7.0%$198
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: New York G6mo7.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Los Angeles C7mo7.0%$200
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: Stays with Philadelphia or Retires6mo6.0%$1.5K
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Los Angeles R6mo6.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Chicago7mo6.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Dallas4mo5.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: New York J4mo5.0%$5
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Philadelphia7mo5.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Jacksonville3mo4.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Carolina4mo4.0%$9
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: Los Angeles C6mo4.0%$1.2K
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Philadelphia6mo4.0%$110
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Buffalo7mo4.0%$18
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Arizona4mo3.0%$0
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: Los Angeles R6mo3.0%$1.3K
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Las Vegas6mo3.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Atlanta6mo3.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Indianapolis6mo3.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Philadelphia6mo3.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Los Angeles C3mo2.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Tennessee3mo2.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Washington3mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Chicago4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Green Bay4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Houston4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Las Vegas4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Miami4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: New Orleans4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: New York G4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Seattle4mo2.0%$0
What will be Brendan Sorsby's next team?: Washington4mo2.0%$0
What will be A.J. Brown's next team?: Kansas City6mo2.0%$1.5K
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Denver6mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: San Francisco6mo2.0%$5
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Tampa Bay6mo2.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Buffalo6mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Las Vegas6mo2.0%$18
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Baltimore7mo2.0%$191
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Dallas7mo2.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Las Vegas7mo2.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: New England7mo2.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: San Francisco7mo2.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 306 constituents.

Browse this series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNEXTTEAMNFL on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Fri, 22 May 2026 06:20:18 GMT.