SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve290 markets

What will be Davante Adams's next team

event base · KXNEXTTEAMNFL

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 29 Jun 2026Methodology
24h volume
$8.4K
Constituents
290
Distinct tenors
5
5w – 13mo
Avg P(YES)
6.0%

Term structure

YES probability across 5 tenors

25%50%75%5w4mo7mo10mo13mo
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced flat structure across the two observable tenor buckets, with the 64-day markets clustering around similar probability levels to the 78-day markets. Within the 64-day bucket, probabilities display extreme dispersion by player-team combination rather than by tenor, ranging from 1.0% to 95.0%. The Joe Burrow-Cincinnati market commands 95.0% at 64 days with substantial volume ($83), while most Burrow alternatives trade at 1.0%. The Gabe Adams markets show more moderate spreads, with Los Angeles at 90.0% and Las Vegas at 19.0%. The 78-day tenor markets for Brent Sour show similarly low probabilities across most team combinations, with Denver at 10.0% and Jacksonville at 8.0% representing the highest outliers. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0% across numerous combinations in both tenor buckets, suggesting a floor of baseline pricing. The flat curve structure combined with extreme idiosyncratic variation indicates the market is pricing a near-term resolution event with high confidence in specific player-team pairings. The dominant probability mass concentrated in Burrow-Cincinnati at 64 days suggests the market expects this outcome to resolve within roughly two months, with minimal probability mass extending to the 78-day tenor. The persistence of 1.0% floor prices across alternative outcomes reflects standard market convention for low-probability events rather than genuine uncertainty about timing. Overall, the market is signaling a compressed resolution window with conviction around particular outcomes, rather than expressing uncertainty about whether the event occurs sooner or later.

Generated 6/29/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

290 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Stays with Cincinnati or Retires from Pro Football5w97.0%$257
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Stays with Los Angeles R or Retires from Pro Football5w95.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Stays with Indianapolis or Retires4mo94.0%$8
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh4mo94.0%$63
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Stays with Atlanta or Retires4mo94.0%$138
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Stays with Buffalo or Retires13mo92.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Stays with Seattle or Retires4mo80.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Pittsburgh4mo78.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Denver4mo69.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires4mo68.0%$20
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Cincinnati4mo64.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Arizona4mo48.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: New England4mo44.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires4mo44.0%$5
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Washington4mo44.0%$347
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Tampa Bay5w30.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires5mo29.0%$101
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Pittsburgh5w28.0%$0
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Las Vegas5w19.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Baltimore4mo17.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: New England4mo17.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Pittsburgh13mo16.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Dallas13mo14.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles R4mo12.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City5mo12.0%$136
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans4mo11.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Baltimore4mo11.0%$408
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Arizona4mo11.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Retires / No Team4mo11.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: San Francisco4mo10.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Kansas City4mo9.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Las Vegas13mo9.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Los Angeles R4mo8.0%$187
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Detroit13mo8.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Los Angeles C13mo8.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: San Francisco4mo7.0%$424
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Indianapolis4mo6.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Philadelphia4mo5.0%$2.9K
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Washington5mo5.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Jacksonville5w4.0%$0
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Retires / No Team4mo4.0%$1.8K
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Chicago4mo4.0%$65
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Dallas4mo4.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Buffalo4mo4.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Buffalo4mo4.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Miami4mo4.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Stays with New England or Retires4mo4.0%$4
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: San Francisco4mo4.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: New England5mo4.0%$0
What will be Davante Adams's next team?: Green Bay5w3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Chicago4mo3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Cincinnati4mo3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle4mo3.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Las Vegas4mo3.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Atlanta4mo3.0%$7
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Tampa Bay4mo3.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Chicago5mo3.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Los Angeles C5w2.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Philadelphia5w2.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Tennessee5w2.0%$0
What will be Joe Burrow's next team?: Washington5w2.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Tennessee4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Buffalo4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Dallas4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Green Bay4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles C4mo2.0%$234
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Miami4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New England4mo2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Philadelphia4mo2.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Buffalo4mo2.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Detroit4mo2.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: New England4mo2.0%$465
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Chicago4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Dallas4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Denver4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Houston4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Los Angeles C4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: Las Vegas4mo2.0%$105
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: New York G4mo2.0%$0
What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?: New York J4mo2.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 290 constituents.

Browse this series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNEXTTEAMNFL on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:20:49 GMT.