SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve200 markets

What will be Alec Pierce's next team

event base · KXNEXTTEAMNFL

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 14 Sep 2026Methodology
24h volume
$22.4K
Constituents
200
Distinct tenors
3
10w – 12mo
Avg P(YES)
6.6%

Term structure

YES probability across 3 tenors

25%50%75%10w5mo7mo9mo12mo
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The prediction market displays a flat yield curve across all observed tenors, with all constituent markets clustering at the 78-day resolution window. The entire market structure shows uniformly depressed YES probabilities, with 1.0% pricing dominating across nearly all team-outcome combinations. The only meaningful exceptions are the Indianapolis Colts market at 92.0% YES and the Aaron Rodgers "NONE" outcome at 6.0% YES, both also at the 78-day tenor. This flat structure indicates the market has concentrated all liquidity and price discovery into a single time bucket rather than distributing expectations across multiple resolution dates. The cheapest YES probabilities are effectively tied across the entire curve at 1.0%, suggesting minimal differentiation in how the market values outcomes at different time horizons. The flatness of this curve, combined with the extreme concentration at 78 days and the overwhelming prevalence of 1.0% pricing, suggests the market views the event as either highly unlikely to occur within the measured timeframe or fundamentally uncertain about timing. The stark exception of the Colts at 92% and Rodgers-NONE at 6% indicates the market has formed a specific conviction around one outcome—Indianapolis appears to be the heavily favored next team for Pierce—while remaining agnostic about alternative scenarios. The zero trading volume across most markets reinforces that this is a thin, illiquid curve where prices may reflect initial market-maker spreads rather than genuine price discovery. The market is essentially saying: one outcome dominates with high confidence, but nearly all other possibilities remain priced at floor levels with minimal conviction or trading interest.

Generated 9/14/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

200 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Stays with Indianapolis or Retires10w93.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Pittsburgh10w93.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Stays with Atlanta or Retires10w92.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Stays with Buffalo or Retires12mo87.0%$0
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Pittsburgh10w86.0%$10.2K
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Stays with Seattle or Retires10w78.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Denver10w69.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires10w69.0%$35
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Cincinnati10w64.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Arizona10w48.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Kansas City3mo45.0%$814
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: New England10w44.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Stays with New York G or Retires10w30.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Baltimore10w17.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Pittsburgh12mo16.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: New England10w15.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Minnesota12mo15.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Dallas12mo14.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles R10w12.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Baltimore10w12.0%$0
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team?: Retires / No Team10w11.0%$8.5K
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Arizona10w11.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Retires / No Team10w11.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Stays with Miami or Retires3mo11.0%$89
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Miami10w9.0%$0
What will be T.J. Watt's next team?: Seattle10w9.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Las Vegas12mo9.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Detroit12mo8.0%$0
What will be the quarterback Josh Allen's next team?: Los Angeles C12mo8.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Seattle10w7.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Dallas10w7.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Atlanta10w5.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Carolina10w5.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Los Angeles C10w5.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans10w5.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Detroit10w4.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Chicago10w4.0%$1.4K
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Buffalo3mo4.0%$0
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Dallas10w3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Chicago10w3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Cincinnati10w3.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: San Francisco10w3.0%$0
What will be Rashid Shaheed's next team?: Las Vegas10w3.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: New York G3mo3.0%$194
What will be Kyle Pitts's next team?: Tennessee10w2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Buffalo10w2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Dallas10w2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Green Bay10w2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Philadelphia10w2.0%$0
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: Tampa Bay10w2.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Carolina10w2.0%$0
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?: Detroit10w2.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Baltimore3mo2.0%$26
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Indianapolis3mo2.0%$0
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Los Angeles R3mo2.0%$27
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Los Angeles C3mo2.0%$11
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?: Minnesota3mo2.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Arizona10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Atlanta10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Baltimore10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Buffalo10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Carolina10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Chicago10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Cincinnati10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Cleveland10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Dallas10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Denver10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Detroit10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Green Bay10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Houston10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Jacksonville10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Kansas City10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Los Angeles R10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Los Angeles C10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Las Vegas10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Miami10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: Minnesota10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: New England10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: New Orleans10w1.0%$0
What will be Alec Pierce's next team?: New York G10w1.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 200 constituents.

Browse this series

NFL Star Next-Team Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNEXTTEAMNFL on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Mon, 14 Sep 2026 06:21:43 GMT.