Will above -25000 jobs be added in June 2026

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across the term structure, with the steepest decline occurring between the 12-day and 48-day tenors. At the shortest tenor (12 days), YES probabilities for moderate outcomes cluster in the 76-88% range, while extreme outcomes show sharp bifurcation—the T-25000 contract trades at 94% but the T100000 contract drops to 48%, and T125000 falls to just 32%. Moving to the 48-day tenor, probabilities compress slightly lower across comparable strike levels, with T100000 at 51% and T125000 at 42%. The curve continues flattening through the 76-day, 104-day, and 139-day tenors, with the longest-dated October contracts showing the cheapest YES probabilities overall—T100000 at 24% and T125000 at just 15%. This represents a dramatic 24-percentage-point decline from June to October at the T100000 strike. The market's probability structure reveals a strong consensus that a payroll outcome will materialize in the near term, with conviction highest for moderate-to-strong results in June. The steep downslope suggests market participants expect resolution to occur relatively soon, as longer-dated contracts systematically price lower probabilities for the same outcome thresholds. The extreme compression at higher strike levels (T100000+) across all tenors indicates skepticism about very large payroll beats, but this skepticism intensifies dramatically as time extends. The curve's shape communicates that the market views this as a near-term event with diminishing tail-risk probability as the forecast horizon lengthens, rather than a persistent uncertainty that compounds over time.