Will above -25000 jobs be added in September 2026

The yield curve exhibits a pronounced downward slope across the strike dimension at each tenor, with the steepest compression occurring between the lowest and highest strike thresholds. At the 40-day tenor (26SEP), YES probabilities range from 88% at T-25000 down to 17% at T100000, a 71-percentage-point spread. This spread moderates only slightly at longer tenors: 75 days yields a 55-point range (85% to 30%), and 103 days shows a 54-point range (83% to 29%). The cheapest YES probabilities consistently appear at the highest strike levels (T100000 and T125000) across all three tenors, where probabilities cluster in the 12–30% range. Notably, the term structure itself is remarkably flat—probability levels at equivalent strikes show minimal variation across the 40-, 75-, and 103-day horizons, suggesting the market perceives little additional uncertainty or drift as the resolution window extends. The market's current pricing reflects a strong consensus that payrolls will land in the lower-to-mid range, with declining conviction as strikes move higher. The flatness of the term structure indicates that market participants do not expect the distribution of outcomes to shift materially over the next three months; the event's fundamental uncertainty appears already priced in at the near term. The steep strike-based gradient—particularly the sharp drop-off above T50000—signals that tail-risk scenarios (very strong payroll numbers exceeding 100,000) are viewed as unlikely across all horizons. This structure is consistent with a market expecting moderate payroll growth rather than either a collapse or a surge, with probabilities of extreme outcomes remaining suppressed regardless of tenor.