Russia unemployment rate in July 2026

The prediction market yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across the near-term tenors before flattening considerably at longer horizons. The shortest tenor (10 days) shows the steepest probability cliff, with YES probabilities ranging from 96% down to just 4-5% across the RUS26JUL contracts. The 12-day CAN26AUG bucket maintains elevated probabilities in the 85-91% range before dropping sharply to 1-2%, while the 24-day tenors (BR26JUL and CHN26AUG) exhibit more gradual decay, with probabilities declining from 80-86% to single digits. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 32-day AUS26AUG bucket and the 79-day SAF26Q3 bucket, both bottoming out at 1%, though the SAF26Q3 contracts show stronger mid-range probabilities (49-96%) compared to the steeper cliff observed in shorter tenors. This structure reveals significant term differentiation rather than a simple monotonic decline. The market's probability distribution strongly suggests concentration of expected event occurrence in the immediate 10-24 day window, with the steepest decay occurring between days 10 and 24. The flattening at longer tenors—where probabilities stabilize around 1% rather than declining further—indicates the market assigns minimal but non-zero tail risk to outcomes beyond 32 days. The high trading volume concentrated in the CHN26AUG contracts (particularly the 5.1-5.3 strikes) suggests active price discovery around the 24-day tenor, implying this is where market participants perceive the critical decision point. Overall, the curve communicates that the market expects resolution to occur soon, with