China unemployment rate in June 2026

The yield curve displays a dramatic steepening pattern with a sharp initial decline followed by stabilization at lower probability levels. The immediate tenor (tau=0d) shows the highest YES probabilities, with markets at 6.2-6.4 trading between 89-95%, before collapsing to 42% at 6.6 and dropping to just 1-2% at 6.8 and beyond. The cheapest YES probability appears in the tau=5d bucket, where KXUE-CHN26JUN-5.2 trades at just 4%, representing the steepest discount across the entire curve. By tau=14d and tau=19d, probabilities stabilize in a moderate range (18-91% and 18-90% respectively), while the tau=21d bucket shows mixed signals with some markets at 97% (GER26JUL-5.9) but others clustered around 2-4%. This curve structure reveals a market expecting resolution to occur imminently or not at all. The near-vertical drop from 68% (6.5 at tau=0d) to 4% (5.2 at tau=5d) suggests traders believe the event outcome will be determined within the next five days, with little probability mass assigned to the intermediate timeframe. The subsequent flattening at longer tenors indicates that if the event does not resolve in the immediate window, market participants assign relatively stable and lower odds to its eventual occurrence. The extreme concentration of volume in the tau=0d bucket ($213-457 in the 6.5-6.6 range) confirms this is where price discovery is actively occurring, while the zero-volume markets at longer tenors suggest minimal conviction about delayed resolution scenarios.