Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across the term structure, with the shortest-tenor MEX contracts (6 days) showing the highest YES probabilities in the 78-82% range for mid-strike levels, while longer-dated contracts show progressively lower probabilities at comparable strike levels. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 25-27 day tenor bucket, where AUS contracts trade at 13-14% for upper strikes and CHN contracts show 1-4% for the highest strikes. Within individual tenor buckets, the curves are notably non-monotonic and fragmented, suggesting either poor liquidity or significant disagreement about the underlying distribution. The BR and GER 7-day contracts display particularly erratic pricing, with GER-6.2 at 85% standing isolated among much lower probabilities, indicating potential data anomalies or thin trading. The market's current pricing structure suggests concentration of event probability in the immediate 6-7 day window, with a sharp decay in conviction as time extends. The steepening curve implies the market expects either a near-term resolution or outcome crystallization, with substantially reduced probability mass assigned to outcomes 25+ days forward. The fragmented intra-bucket pricing and near-zero volumes across most contracts indicate these markets lack sufficient liquidity to form a coherent consensus distribution. The sole exception is CHN-4.8 at 98% with $329 in 24-hour volume, suggesting this particular strike has attracted meaningful conviction, though the overall pattern reflects a market struggling to price a complex, multi-dimensional event with uncertain timing.