SimpleFunctions

Tokyo Great Bears (-2.5) vs Hokkaido Yellow Stars (+2.5) for Set Handicap

Set Handicap: Tokyo Great Bears (-2.5) vs Hokkaido Yellow Stars (+2.5) is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 98¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

50¢ current

50¢
Oct 16, 2026Oct 16, 2026

Contract brief

This market refers to the volleyball match between Tokyo Great Bears and Hokkaido Yellow Stars in the SV.League, originally scheduled for October 17 at 1:05AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tokyo Great Bears" if Tokyo Great Bears wins by 3 or more sets than Hokkaido Yellow Stars, based on the final completed match score. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hokkaido Yellow Stars". For the purposes of this market, set margin is calculated using completed sets won across the full match. A set counts toward the margin once it is completed with a winner determined. If the match is completed, this market will resolve based on the final completed match score. If a team withdraws, forfeits, is defaulted, is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. For set handicap markets, an outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional sets required. For example, in a best-of-5 match with a Set Handicap market of Team A -2.5 sets, Team A must win the match 3-0. If Team B wins the first set and play later stops before the match is completed, Team A can no longer win by 3 sets, so Team B +2.5 would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin for any reason — including cancellation, pre-match withdrawal, walkover, or forfeit before play begins — or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official SV.League results.

Outcome

Set Handicap: Tokyo Great Bears (-2.5) vs Hokkaido Yellow Stars (+2.5)

Rank

Standalone

Leader

—

Range

—

Family volume

$0

Identifier

0x859243b8...97ef

Oct 16, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

50¢
Latest venue quote
Oct 16, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

1¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

98¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Oct 24, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 99¢

Polymarket
98¢ spread
BidSize
100¢20
AskSize
99¢20

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market refers to the volleyball match between Tokyo Great Bears and Hokkaido Yellow Stars in the SV.League, originally scheduled for October 17 at 1:05AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tokyo Great Bears" if Tokyo Great Bears wins by 3 or more sets than Hokkaido Yellow Stars, based on the final completed match score. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Hokkaido Yellow Stars". For the purposes of this market, set margin is calculated using completed sets won across the full match. A set counts toward the margin once it is completed with a winner determined. If the match is completed, this market will resolve based on the final completed match score. If a team withdraws, forfeits, is defaulted, is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. For set handicap markets, an outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional sets required. For example, in a best-of-5 match with a Set Handicap market of Team A -2.5 sets, Team A must win the match 3-0. If Team B wins the first set and play later stops before the match is completed, Team A can no longer win by 3 sets, so Team B +2.5 would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin for any reason — including cancellation, pre-match withdrawal, walkover, or forfeit before play begins — or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official SV.League results.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Oct 24, 2026

Identifier

0x859243b8…97ef

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Set Handicap: Tokyo Great Bears (-2.5) vs Hokkaido Yellow Stars (+2.5) 50¢

Current share

—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.