Top Math AI this month
Gemini is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Top Math AI this month.
Price history
95¢ current
+82¢Contract brief
If Gemini is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) Style Control Off on Jun 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Gemini
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Gemini 93¢
Range
1¢-93¢
Family volume
$45
Identifier
KXMATHAI-26JUN30-GEMI
Jun 25, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
93¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Top Math AI this month
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$45
Orderbook snapshot
93 / 95¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Gemini is the #1 model on Arena AI Text Arena Leaderboard (Math) Style Control Off on Jun 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXMATHAI-26JUN30-GEMI
Event family
Top Math AI this month.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$45
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Gemini 93¢
Current share
25%
Gemini
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-GEMI
Claude
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-CLAU
Qwen
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-QWEN
ChatGPT
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-CHAT
Kimi
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-KIMI
Mimo
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-MIMO
Minimax
kalshi · KXMATHAI-26JUN30-MINI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.