Top Math AI this month
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
96%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$364
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top Math AI this month
Top Math AI this month?: Gemini
KXMATHAI-26JUN30-GEMI
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for which AI system will be ranked as the top performer on mathematical reasoning benchmarks during June 2026. Gemini is currently the market leader at 56%, with Claude at 39% and ChatGPT at 4%. The assessment depends primarily on how different AI systems perform on standardized math evaluation frameworks released or updated this month. Key drivers include recent benchmark releases, performance on competitions like the International Mathematical Olympiad or similar assessments, and how different providers measure and publicize their results. Resolution will likely depend on which model demonstrates superior performance on verifiable mathematical problem-solving tasks released by major AI research organizations or independent evaluators during this period.
- ›Benchmark results released by major organizations (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic) during June 2026 on standardized math evaluation sets
- ›Performance on mathematical olympiad-style problems or other third-party mathematical reasoning competitions active this month
- ›Publication dates and methodologies of any major peer-reviewed evaluations comparing AI systems on mathematical tasks
- ›Market participants' weighting of different evaluation sources and their perceived credibility for ranking math capability
- ›Volume concentration ($478 vs $413 vs $136 24h) suggesting unequal confidence levels across outcomes rather than genuine uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 24Gemini↑9pp78→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Gemini↑7pp87→94¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Gemini↑4pp65→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Gemini↑4pp74→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Gemini↑3pp71→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.