What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Barack Hussein Obama is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
Price history
50¢ current
+39¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Barack Hussein Obama
Rank
#13 of 16
Leader
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 89¢
Range
5¢-89¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BARA
Jun 21, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#13 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says Barack Hussein Obama as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BARA
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 89¢
Current share
12%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-OIL
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-HOTT
Fake News
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-FAKE
Trillion
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TRIL
World Cup
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-WORL
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DUMB
First Term
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-FIRS
America First
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-AMER
Fraud
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-FRAU
Transgender
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TRAN
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BALL
Olympic / Olympics
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-OLYM
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BARA
Gulf of America
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-GULF
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-CRYP
Event does not qualify
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-NQE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.