What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream (excluding Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center)

US-Iran War and Oil: What Prediction Markets Are Actually Pricing

What prediction markets are pricing for the US-Iran conflict, oil prices, Hormuz disruption, and recession risk. Causal tree analysis with specific Kalshi and Polymarket contracts.

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock

A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.