What will Kevin Warsh say during remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In

Deep‑dive on Federal Reserve interest rates in 2026: SEP projections, inflation and unemployment paths, QT endgame, global central bank context, and what prediction markets are pricing for Fed cuts, inflation, and recession—plus actionable trading setups.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.