SimpleFunctions

What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Claude is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 14 inside What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call.

Price history

19¢ current

+17¢
0¢25¢
Jul 24, 2026Aug 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Claude is said by any Urban Outfitters, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Urban Outfitters, Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Claude

Rank

#11 of 14

Leader

Tariff 80¢

Range

4¢-80¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXEARNINGSMENTIONURBN-26AUG26-CLAU

Aug 9, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

19¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 9, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

20¢

Spread

Reported volume

$40

Family rank

#11 of 14

14 outcomes · What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Closes

Jan 31, 2027

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 20¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
100¢20
12¢200
2¢100
AskSize
20¢200
26¢1
34¢20
36¢2
46¢3

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Claude is said by any Urban Outfitters, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Urban Outfitters, Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 31, 2027

Identifier

KXEARNINGSMENTIONURBN-26AUG26-CLAU

SF Signal
SF Index
762.61
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1525.2%

IY (No)

28.4%

Adj IY

763%

CRI

7

Overround

4.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1525.2%
28.4%
Adj IY
763%
7
Overround
4.5%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.