What is the current probability for "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 1, 2026. 223 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 157.0% and 170.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $377 open interest, making the 55-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10-cent spread.

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51¢

Bid/Ask 51/60¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $533.42·Closes Dec 1, 2026·223d remaining

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01

7-day price152 snapshots · 2 regime

53¢51¢ current

Apr 819¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows minimal trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and just $377 open interest, making the 55-cent price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10-cent spread. The 195.5% annualized yield on the Yes side appears attractive but reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge, and the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional momentum. With 228 days to expiry and a modest 1-cent downward drift over seven days, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident positioning without significant additional volume.

Resolution rules

If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 157.0%

IY (No) 170.1%

Adj IY 85%

CRI 1

Overround 2.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	157.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	170.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:38:56 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →