When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5583% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5583% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 8% probability pricing appears reasonable given Anthropic's current private status and typical pre-IPO timelines, though the wide 8¢ spread reflects the thin order book. With 75 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, this contract would require significant capital commitment relative to its size to move meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 yes 100