SimpleFunctions

Before September · When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before

Before September is priced at 40¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 46¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before.

Price history

40¢ current

+16¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 27, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before September

Rank

#3 of 4

Leader

Before 2027 61¢

Range

3¢-61¢

Family volume

$1

Identifier

KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26SEP01

Jun 26, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

40¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

46¢

Spread

Reported volume

$27K

Family rank

#3 of 4

4 outcomes · When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Family volume

$1

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 46¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
41¢22
40¢22
39¢61
38¢895
21¢417
AskSize
46¢7
47¢500
74¢67
75¢97
78¢823

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Identifier

KXFDAANNOUNCE-BPC-26SEP01

SF Signal
SF Index
790.17
Regime
neutral

Event family

When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Before 2027 61¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

790.2%

IY (No)

381.6%

Adj IY

790%

CRI

1

RV

158%

VR

0.57

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

data_release

Full indicator table

790.2%
381.6%
Adj IY
790%
1
RV
158%
VR
0.57
IAR
0.3/h
Overround
0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.