Before Dec 1, 2026 · When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before
Before Dec 1, 2026 is priced at 90¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before.
Price history
90¢ current
+89¢Contract brief
If SpaceX launches Dragon Crew-13 After issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Dec 1, 2026
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 94¢
Range
2¢-94¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26DEC01
Jul 23, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$258
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX launches Dragon Crew-13 After issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26DEC01
Event family
When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 94¢
Current share
—
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-27JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26OCT01
Before Sep 27, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26SEP27
Before Sep 20, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26SEP20
Before Sep 13, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26SEP13
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.