When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13
Leader sits at 93% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
86 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13
When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26DEC01
When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-27JAN01
When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXSPCXLAUNCH-CREW13-26NOV01
Analysis
This measures the probability that SpaceX will launch the Dragon Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station before January 1, 2027. The 87% probability reflects strong market confidence in a launch within the next six months, though the contract structure shows meaningful uncertainty about timing within that window. Market prices drop sharply for September launches (11–33¢) but remain elevated for October through December (79–85¢), suggesting traders expect a delay into the final months of 2026. The outcome depends on SpaceX's current launch cadence, vehicle readiness, and any technical or weather-related postponements. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the Dragon Crew-13 launch date and any schedule adjustments in the coming weeks. A crewed Dragon launch typically requires 2–4 months of preparation after the previous mission completes.
- ›SpaceX's historical Dragon crewed mission launch success rate and typical turnaround time between successive crew missions
- ›Current status and completion date of Dragon Crew-12 mission, which must conclude before Crew-13 can launch
- ›Number of scheduled launch windows SpaceX has reserved for Crew-13 in Q3 and Q4 2026 according to NASA flight schedules
- ›Any publicly announced technical issues, manufacturing delays, or schedule revisions from SpaceX or NASA in recent months
- ›Historical frequency of launch postponements for crewed missions due to weather, technical inspection findings, or payload readiness
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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