Before Sep 1, 2026 · When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before
Before Sep 1, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before.
Price history
2¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 157 mph) forms in the Atlantic before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Sep 1, 2026
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before Dec 1, 2026 53¢
Range
3¢-53¢
Family volume
$105
Identifier
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP01
Aug 24, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$105
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 157 mph) forms in the Atlantic before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP01
Event family
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$105
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Dec 1, 2026 53¢
Current share
5%
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.