When will the next Category 5 hurricane form
Leader sits at 55% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Dec 1, 2026
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$200
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26OCT01
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP01
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXNEXTCAT5HURDATE-26DEC01-26NOV01
Analysis
This probability measures the chance that a Category 5 hurricane will form before September 1, 2026—just three weeks away. Markets currently estimate this at 4%, reflecting the rarity of Category 5 storms and the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The assessment depends on current sea surface temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and historical frequency: Category 5 hurricanes form in only a small fraction of Atlantic seasons. If tropical activity accelerates significantly in late August, or if satellite data shows unusual ocean warming patterns, this probability would likely rise. The main near-term catalyst is early September itself—if no Category 5 forms by September 1, the market will shift focus to the October 1 and November 1 contract windows, when hurricane season typically peaks. Real-time monitoring of developing tropical systems and sea surface temperature anomalies will be the primary drivers of probability movement.
- ›Only 3 weeks remain until the September 1 deadline, and no major tropical systems are currently forecast to rapidly intensify to Category 5 strength
- ›Historical data shows Category 5 hurricanes are rare events; fewer than 20 have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1850, with clustering in certain decades
- ›Current Atlantic sea surface temperatures and atmospheric indicators would need to shift substantially to support rapid intensification
- ›September 1 serves as the immediate resolution date; if it passes without a Category 5, market focus shifts to later-season windows when conditions typically favor stronger storms
- ›Operational hurricane forecasting models and real-time satellite imagery of tropical systems will provide the clearest signals for probability revision
What moved the line
- Aug 21Before Oct 1, 2026↓13pp20→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Oct 1, 2026↑10pp10→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Before Dec 1, 2026↑9pp24→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Before Nov 1, 2026↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Before Dec 1, 2026↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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