Before Dec 1, 2026 · When will the next hurricane form?: Before
Before Dec 1, 2026 is priced at 92¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside When will the next hurricane form?: Before.
Price history
92¢ current
+86¢Contract brief
If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Dec 1, 2026
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Before Dec 1, 2026 93¢
Range
9¢-93¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
Aug 24, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
93¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$200
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · When will the next hurricane form?: Before
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
93 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
Event family
When will the next hurricane form?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Before Dec 1, 2026 93¢
Current share
0%
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
Before Oct 15, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26OCT15
Before Nov 15, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26NOV15
Before Sep 15, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP15
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26OCT01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26NOV01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 92% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.