When will the next hurricane form

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets estimate a 68% probability that a hurricane will form before October 1, 2026. This reflects expectations about Atlantic basin activity during the peak portion of hurricane season, which typically runs June through November. The probability is driven by seasonal meteorological patterns, historical frequency of hurricane formation by early October, and current atmospheric conditions. The main factor pushing expectations higher is that we are entering late August, when sea surface temperatures peak and tropical cyclogenesis becomes more common. The biggest near-term catalyst will be the actual track and formation of tropical systems over the next 8-55 days; any observed hurricane formation immediately settles the question, while a prolonged absence of hurricane development would lower the probability. Current trading volume concentrates on the Aug 15 date, suggesting near-term tropical activity is a focal point for market participants.

• ›Atlantic sea surface temperatures in August-September 2026 and their deviation from historical norms
• ›Observed formation of tropical depressions or storms between now and October 1, which may or may not intensify to hurricane status
• ›Position and intensity of African tropical waves, Bermuda high pressure system, and other steering mechanisms affecting Atlantic basin wind shear
• ›Historical climatology showing hurricane formation rates by specific dates within the 2026 Atlantic season
• ›Resolution timeline: any confirmed hurricane formation before Oct 1 settles the leading contract at 100%, while the contract expires on Oct 1 if no hurricane has formed

What moved the line

• Aug 17Before Sep 15, 2026↓46pp61→15¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Before Sep 15, 2026↑44pp15→59¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 22Before Nov 1, 2026↑30pp24→54¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Before Sep 1, 2026↓22pp37→15¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Before Oct 15, 2026↑22pp35→57¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in climate

• Will Elida become a Category 2 hurricanelast 95% · 12d
• Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 37d
• Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 37d
• Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026last 27% · 37d
• Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026last 37% · 37d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds