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Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next

Al-Hilal is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 10 inside Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next.

Price history

4¢ current

+1¢
0¢5¢
Aug 20, 2026Sep 11, 2026

Contract brief

If the next club that Cristiano Ronaldo joins is Al-Hilal before Sep 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Al-Hilal

Rank

#6 of 10

Leader

Galatasaray 10¢

Range

2¢-10¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXJOINRONALDO-27-HIL

Sep 17, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 17, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

12¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#6 of 10

10 outcomes · Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next

Closes

Sep 9, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 12¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
4¢65
3¢100
AskSize
12¢100
27¢90
55¢243
61¢225
64¢87

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the next club that Cristiano Ronaldo joins is Al-Hilal before Sep 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 9, 2027

Identifier

KXJOINRONALDO-27-HIL

SF Signal
SF Index
1225.84
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2451.7%

IY (No)

4.3%

Adj IY

1226%

CRI

24

Overround

-0.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

2451.7%
4.3%
Adj IY
1226%
24
Overround
-0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.