Where will Julian Alvarez go next
Arsenal is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 13 inside Where will Julian Alvarez go next.
Price history
21¢ current
+20¢Contract brief
If Julian Alvarez's next club is Arsenal before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Arsenal
Rank
#2 of 13
Leader
Barcelona 48¢
Range
1¢-48¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ARS
Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#2 of 13
13 outcomes · Where will Julian Alvarez go next
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Julian Alvarez's next club is Arsenal before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ARS
Event family
Where will Julian Alvarez go next.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Barcelona 48¢
Current share
1%
Barcelona
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-BAR
Arsenal
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ARS
Atletico
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-ATM
Real Madrid
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-RMA
PSG
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-PSG
Manchester United
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-MUN
Bayern Munich
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-BMU
Chelsea
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-CFC
Liverpool
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-LFC
Manchester City
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-MCI
Napoli
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-NAP
Newcastle
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-NEW
Tottenham
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JALVAREZ-TOT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.