Where will Neymar go next
Santos is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Where will Neymar go next.
Price history
59¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If Neymar's next club is Santos before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Santos
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Santos 59¢
Range
1¢-59¢
Family volume
$934
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-SAN
Jun 26, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$200
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Where will Neymar go next
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Family volume
$934
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Neymar's next club is Santos before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-SAN
Event family
Where will Neymar go next.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$934
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Santos 59¢
Current share
21%
Santos
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-SAN
Inter Miami
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
FC Cincinnati
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-CIN
LAFC
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-LAFC
Los Angeles Galaxy
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-LAG
Chelsea
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-CFC
PSG
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-PSG
Barcelona
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-BAR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 59% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.