What is the current probability for "Where will Neymar go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Neymar go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 174.9% and 261.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Neymar go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Neymar go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Where will Neymar go next?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest despite a wide 10¢ spread, suggesting it's either newly listed or abandoned by traders.

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57¢

Bid/Ask 55/65¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $200·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-SAN

7-day price4 snapshots · 4 regime

65¢55¢ current

Apr 163¢Apr 20

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no 24-hour volume and no open interest despite a wide 10¢ spread, suggesting it's either newly listed or abandoned by traders. The 0¢ price implies the market is pricing an extremely low probability that Neymar returns to Santos by October 2026, though the asymmetric implied yields (113.1% for Yes vs. 390.2% for No) indicate significant uncertainty given the illiquidity. With 174 days to expiration and a flat 7-day price history at 65¢, this market lacks the trading activity needed to establish reliable pricing, making it unsuitable for serious prediction or hedging purposes.

Resolution rules

If Neymar's next club is Santos before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 174.9%

IY (No) 261.3%

Adj IY 131%

CRI 1

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	174.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	261.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	131%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:07:25 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-SAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →