Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year is priced at 34¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 30¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
34¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$85K
Identifier
0x61212670...33e5
Jun 26, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$222
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$85K
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x61212670…33e5
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$85K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year 34¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.