Which countries will have recessions
United Kingdom is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Which countries will have recessions.
Price history
14¢ current
−31¢Contract brief
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
United Kingdom
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Japan 23¢
Range
1¢-23¢
Family volume
$9
Identifier
WRECSS-26-UK
Jun 21, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$9
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Which countries will have recessions
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$9
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If United Kingdom has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
WRECSS-26-UK
Event family
Which countries will have recessions.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Japan 23¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.