Toy Story 5 · Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Toy Story 5 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Outcome
Toy Story 5
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
Avengers: Doomsday 73¢
Range
1¢-73¢
Family volume
$682K
Identifier
0x4a3bae05...e78a
Jun 8, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$185
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$682K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4a3bae05…e78a
Event family
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$682K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Avengers: Doomsday 73¢
Current share
27%
Avengers: Doomsday
polymarket · 0x14d327328063504ab74b2ab11fe68ad305525fafc70effcd5ba5c5c688971988
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
polymarket · 0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0
The Odyssey
polymarket · 0x342eaa2a3fe31eb5a20da27b589937a190a3f2f55fc83909df66e5f3db7d0f9e
Toy Story 5
polymarket · 0x4a3bae05585996851511be08b544323fe6af6f274e5d464603ed26a224f3e78a
Dune: Messiah
polymarket · 0x552c464206214b1ede6021f457790446b4557525eff4620adf7c0f25d4213cba
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
polymarket · 0xd292951cdb6e1db86636fff90d08b78f43cd63880d7c9325a72e9ba6fc0b7054
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
polymarket · 0xcfa7c1c371ba6a2f74a0c0d44e6a441680ed7c90080d31ea96164102327ea5fc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
cultural
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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