Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL
Judd Apatow is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL.
Price history
6¢ current
Contract brief
If Judd Apatow is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Judd Apatow
Rank
#6 of 9
Leader
Tina Fey 35¢
Range
1¢-35¢
Family volume
$61
Identifier
KXSNL-28-JA
Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$682
Family rank
#6 of 9
9 outcomes · Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$61
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Judd Apatow is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSNL-28-JA
Event family
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Tina Fey 35¢
Current share
0%
Tina Fey
kalshi · KXSNL-28-TFEY
Steve Higgins
kalshi · KXSNL-28-SH
Colin Jost
kalshi · KXSNL-28-CJ
Seth Meyers
kalshi · KXSNL-28-SMEY
Bill Hader
kalshi · KXSNL-28-BH
Judd Apatow
kalshi · KXSNL-28-JA
Kenan Thompson
kalshi · KXSNL-28-KT
Maya Rudolph
kalshi · KXSNL-28-MR
Mike Shoemaker
kalshi · KXSNL-28-MS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.