Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Charles Oliveira holding the UFC Lightweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing, with a 7¢ price implying just 7% probability yet generating a staggering 3,387.8% annualized yield if correct.
Analysis
This market on Charles Oliveira holding the UFC Lightweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing, with a 7¢ price implying just 7% probability yet generating a staggering 3,387.8% annualized yield if correct. The zero 24-hour volume combined with only $4,348 open interest suggests severe illiquidity, making the quoted spread potentially misleading and execution difficult at posted prices. With 259 days to expiry and a 24 cliff risk index, the market appears undervalued given Oliveira's status as a former champion and legitimate contender, though the thin liquidity warrants caution before sizing into this position.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Charles Oliveira is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCLIGHTWEIGHTTITLE-26-COLI yes 100