Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Tatsuro Taira retaining the UFC Flyweight Title through end-2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 329% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 35¢ pricing and a massive 11.40 volatility ratio suggesting sharp recent swings.
Analysis
This market on Tatsuro Taira retaining the UFC Flyweight Title through end-2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 329% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 35¢ pricing and a massive 11.40 volatility ratio suggesting sharp recent swings. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $10,162 open interest and a 9¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity that likely explains the outsized yield—the market may be too thin to reflect true probabilities. With 259 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 3,733%, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced contract, warranting caution on the stated yield metrics.
Also on polymarket at 32¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Tatsuro Taira holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFLYWEIGHTTITLE-26-TTAI yes 100