Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (1669% realized vol) with a dramatic 7-day decline from 38¢ to 30¢, now trading at 49¢—suggesting recent price recovery that warrants scrutiny.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (1669% realized vol) with a dramatic 7-day decline from 38¢ to 30¢, now trading at 49¢—suggesting recent price recovery that warrants scrutiny. The 329% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 259-day timeframe, indicating either significant underpricing of Pantoja's title retention or elevated uncertainty around UFC scheduling and matchups. With only $27,984 open interest and an 18¢ spread against $4.36 daily volume, liquidity is thin, making the extreme yield figures potentially unreliable for actual execution at quoted prices.
Also on polymarket at 26¢(Δ +10¢)
Resolution rules
If Alexandre Pantoja holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFLYWEIGHTTITLE-26-APAN yes 100