Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Elon Musk is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Who will Time name as Person of the Decade.
Price history
36¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Elon Musk is Time's Person of the Decade for the 2020s, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Elon Musk
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 35¢
Range
5¢-35¢
Family volume
$8
Identifier
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-EMUS
Jun 26, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Closes
Jan 31, 2030
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elon Musk is Time's Person of the Decade for the 2020s, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 31, 2030
Identifier
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-EMUS
Event family
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 35¢
Current share
13%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-VZEL
Elon Musk
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-EMUS
Taylor Swift
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-TAY
Sam Altman
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-SALT
Xi Jinping
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN
Jensen Huang
kalshi · KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-JHUA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 36% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.