Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Leader sits at 37% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Elon Musk
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 31, 2030
1254 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-VZEL
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Xi Jinping
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-TAY
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Sam Altman
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-SALT
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Jensen Huang
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-JHUA
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Elon Musk
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-EMUS
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment of the likelihood that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be named Time magazine's Person of the Decade. At 36%, it reflects moderate confidence compared to runner-up Elon Musk at 31%, with six other candidates splitting the remaining probability. The current pricing appears driven by Zelenskyy's sustained geopolitical prominence during the Ukraine conflict, balanced against uncertainty about whether Time will favor other narratives—technological disruption, business innovation, or cultural influence—when making their annual designation. The outcome will be determined when Time announces its Person of the Year selection, typically in late November or early December each year, which serves as the primary data point for resolving this question. Traders are weighing whether Zelenskyy's wartime leadership and international visibility will outweigh competing narratives from tech industry figures or entertainment personalities by the decade's end.
- ›Zelenskyy maintains a 5-point edge over Musk, but the two leading candidates represent only 67% combined probability, indicating substantial uncertainty among six tracked options
- ›Time's Person of the Year selections historically reflect geopolitical salience, technological disruption, or cultural moments; the decade designation may weight accumulated impact differently than annual selections
- ›Trading volume on the Zelenskyy contract ($126 in 24h) exceeds the Musk contract ($261) proportionally to probability, suggesting asymmetric conviction or information among traders
- ›The Ukraine conflict's trajectory, intensity of international media coverage, and competing 2026-2030 geopolitical or technological developments will materially affect Zelenskyy's relative prominence
- ›Time magazine's editorial priorities and whether it frames the 2020s around military conflict, AI advancement, business leadership, or other themes will heavily influence the final determination
What moved the line
- Aug 23Volodymyr Zelenskyy↓4pp40→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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