Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Leader sits at 35% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Elon Musk
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 31, 2030
1316 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Sam Altman
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-SALT
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Xi Jinping
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Taylor Swift
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-TAY
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Jensen Huang
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-JHUA
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Elon Musk
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-EMUS
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-VZEL
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects market participants' assessment that an AI-related entity or concept will be selected as Time's Person of the Decade when the magazine makes this selection (likely in late 2029 or early 2030). The probability is being driven primarily by AI's rapid advancement and cultural prominence in 2024-2026, though the specific designation remains uncertain. A runner-up outcome sits at 13%, indicating significant fragmentation across alternative outcomes. The main factors depressing the full probability are uncertainty about whether Time will choose a person, organization, or concept; the unpredictable editorial preferences of Time's selection committee; and competition from major political figures and other potential contenders. Resolution will occur when Time officially announces its Person of the Decade selection, likely at year-end 2029 or in early 2030, at which point the market will settle definitively.
- ›The leading outcome prices AI at 30¢, while the runner-up is at 13¢, indicating significant market uncertainty and a fragmented field of potential winners
- ›Donald Trump trades at 26¢, making him the second-highest individual person within this market, suggesting political figures remain credible contenders
- ›The five most liquid contracts (AI, Trump, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV, and others) collectively represent a minority of the probability space, with remaining outcomes distributed across other unspecified candidates
- ›Time's selection criteria and editorial judgment are not mechanically determined by any public metric, creating irreducible uncertainty for all participants
- ›Resolution is approximately 3-4 years away, allowing substantial shifts in global circumstances that could favor different outcome categories
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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