SimpleFunctions

Marcus Freeman in College Football Coach of the Year

Marcus Freeman is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will win College Football Coach of the Year.

Price history

14¢ current

+3¢
10¢15¢
Jul 2, 2026Jul 14, 2026

Contract brief

If Marcus Freeman wins the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year award in 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Marcus Freeman

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Marcus Freeman 11¢

Range

1¢-11¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXNCAAFCOTY-27-MFRE

Jul 23, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 30m ago

Implied probability

14¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 30m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

14¢

Spread

24h volume

$47

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will win College Football Coach of the Year

Closes

Jan 29, 2027

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 14¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
11¢6
10¢53
8¢500
6¢500
5¢213
AskSize
14¢617
17¢500
21¢14
29¢10
42¢13

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Marcus Freeman wins the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year award in 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 29, 2027

Identifier

KXNCAAFCOTY-27-MFRE

SF Signal
SF Index
777.35
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1554.7%

IY (No)

23.7%

Adj IY

777%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

1554.7%
23.7%
Adj IY
777%
8
Overround
-0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.